Empirical modeling of community yard sale outcomes as a function of time: a study

 
Saturday's sales were not a complete loss. I got a few things - emphasis on few. What's more important is that I was able to complete my research into "community yard sales" and construct a model with which we can predict CYS outcomes when dimensions are calibrated and duration inputs are utilized.

In other words: You can tell how good a community yard sale will be if you know how many years it's been around.

My research reveals four distinct stages to the CYS:

1) Nascent: The community yard sale is a loosely organized, poorly publicized, nearly accidental collection of sales among neighbors who have tons of stuff to unload. It is excellent. Tons of great stuff, and it's all incredibly cheap. Sadly, hardly anyone knows about it. It's one of the cruel ironies of the CYS.

2) Year A: There's a bit of a buzz about the sale because previous year(s) have been so good. A neighbor takes it upon himself/herself to place an advertisement. Because this is the first year the sale is "official," selection remains excellent and prices are competitive.

Example: I found these and these at Year A of the community yard sale.

3) Year B: The sale reaches its full flower. Customers talk about how good the sale was last year, and more vendors set up shop. Selection is still very good, as are the prices.

Example: I found this, this and this at Year B of the community yard sale.

4) Year C: Everybody in the community has a yard sale. All of the people with good stuff sold it in Years A and B, and so the selection is poor. Prices, however, are exponentially higher. People who previously were just happy to get rid of their junk now make fancy price tags with the name of their "shoppe."

    Sadly, this was Year C of the sale. Yes, I found a Gurley snowman still in its original cellophane for 15 cents. (Shown here with a skiing instruction book and a little wooden cabin that's getting a makeover).

But I had to wander through a vortex of Hannah Montana merchandise to get it. I really try to live my life in such a way that I have barely any idea of who Hannah Montana is. This exposure was very upsetting.

     A stack of old honey labels.

    Vintage upholstery fabric.

    A large framed print of sheep. I will buy anything that depicts farm animals.

On the subject of farm animals, this community yard sale takes place along one of my favorite highways, with many barns and pastures filled with cows. There are old rural cemeteries and an honest-to-goodness general store.

    Among the linens I found was this nearly finished Vogart sampler. Even someone with my short attention span should be able to finish up that cross-stitching.

Before I show you the favorite thing I found, I'll tell you about my favorite thing that happened. I stopped at a just-awful sale, but there was a little portable pen set up in the front yard, and in it were nine one-month-old golden retriever puppies. Nothing in the world is cuter than a golden retriever puppy. And there were nine of them.

(two aprons per puppy)

The little girl whose family owned the puppies offered to let me climb in the cage with them. That did not seem like a great idea, but her mother piped up "Why don't you just hand one to her?" and she did, and the puppy snuggled up underneath my chin and made those cute little snuffly puppy noises

(18 more aprons for a snuggling, snuffling puppy)

I forgot there is one more thing before my favorite thing (which, trust me, isn't all that great). I've always had such great luck finding quilts at this sale.

    So I bought this quilt. It is, without a doubt, The Most Boring Quilt in the World. I'm pretty sure the reason it's just a quilt top and not a finished quilt is because the quilter fell into a deep sleep every time she got it out to work on. So why did I buy it, you ask? Because it is chockablock full of awesome old homespun, including homespun in lavender and a pretty aqua-blue, and it will make some quilter happy.

   Here's my favorite thing, an old painted sampler in perfect condition. I'm giving it an apron.

So here's the tally:

One apron for a fresh Gurley - an apron for Hannah Montana exposure + an apron for good scenery + 36 aprons for golden retriever puppies + a general merchandise including painted sampler apron = 38 aprons, minus 35 aprons because even though the puppies deserve 36 aprons only one of them counts =

Three aprons. And that's only because of the puppies. It was definitely more of a two-apron day.

I expect to add to my research next year, which will be Year D: the year you go to the CYS not because you expect to find anything but because you just want to make sure you didn't miss anything.

  

 

 

 

Comments

[Joy]

Exactly - YES - your research is bang on -

I loved at the great "Skillen Street Sale" the first time - parking was easy, finds were great, not advertised except with cardboard signs on telephone poles.

Year A - parking was non-existant, crowds everywhere, finds were fine. Advertised in papers.

Year B - parking adequate, one or two finds, disappointed. Well advertised.

Year C - lots of left over from last sale stuff in 'private stores', nothing much to find, same old, same old. It is amazing how garage sales morf into stores with store prices. Well advertised.

Year D - even the sellers were tired and very few houses participated.

[Maria (Magia Mia)]

Oh the humanity......of being exposed to Hannah Montana merch . Only the allure of baby animals could have the power to de-traumatize you....so glad you had access to that snuggly antidote!

[Tina]

Really, you should go back and get one of those therapy dogs when it is old enough to leave it's mother, just in case there is more Hanna Montana in your future!

[Renee]

The truth and nothing but. Happens every time. There really are no repeats of that wonderful year of "look at all this wonderful stuff I got and oh the prices..." I could be just fine if I never bought another thing with a bar code on it. No puppy shot...minus an apron. Love puppies...smiles...Renee

[Carmen]

I wanted to see puppies too!! Loved this post, I read it out loud to my husband. Tooo funny, glad you found a few things to make it worthwhile.

[Gina]

LOL!! Love your scientific approach and your research is quite impressive! :)

(I so love your titles! Brings me right back to my university days only the subject matter is way more interesting!)

[Ann]

As I continued to read your post I kept waiting for you to say you took one of the cute puppies home with you...making it the best sale ever...infinite aprons. Maybe Year D will bring pleasant surprises!

[Carol @ Old Glory Cottage]

I think you missed a really great blog photo op. I think we all would have enjoyed seeing a shot of you crawling into that pen full of pups!

[laurie mapgie ethel]

Wow there were a bunch of aprons coming and going in this post...and then a total of three...I do agree on the CYS take on them...they are always better in the early years. Not bad tho..I thought we would see a new puppy in your last photo!

[Bonnita]

You come across the BEST stuff!
What did you do with the womens hankies you didn't intend to buy?

[Lisa W.]

It has been a couple of days and I am still laughing at the " Hannah Montana Vortex ".... thanks for that !

[karla nathan]

We have a local neighborhood that has been having an annual sale for about 20 years. I just don't see the point, they seem to have no time to accumulate anything to get rid of. That block must have the cleanest closets in town.

[Lori @ My Vintage Whimsy]

No puppy pictures? Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!!

[Kat]

Aw, geez- the puppies would have had me! There was a CYS here outside of the Cooperstown area and the prices were way too high. And the selection was not interesting at all. Your research is 'right on'. The overall goes down as the years climb up. Love this post!